Grand Evening Traders...looks like my crystal ball was only half right on this latest BTC move. I'll be the first to admit, I missed the mark a bit on calling for a complete Fibonacci reset under 60K. Should've expected this market to throw me a curveball this time.
But hey, that's why we never go all-in on any single trade…only 1 to 5 percent of your total account! This is a razor game of constant adaptation and managing probabilities. For every inevitability we predict, expect the unexpected wrinkle to emerge. The market keeps those twists and turns coming to humble even the most skillful prognosticators.
Instead of the full-swing low I was anticipating, the price just sliced straight through that 60K support like it was warm butter and got slapped back hard causing a long wick to form. This in turn was the beginning of our current bullish movement.
That said, my overarching directional bias still appears on point here. We may have skipped that lower Fibonacci reset, but all signs are pointing to further upside now that we've cleared that pivotal 65K breach. Which means it's time to stick our flag in the ground and ride what's in front of us.
You see that baby blue trendline I've got overlaid on the chart? That's my new path forward until further notice. A nice sloping uptrend channel targeting the 70K region as our next major stopping point for re-evaluation. Could even see an overrun to tag the old highs around 73K if this bounce really gets crazy.
From this vantage point, holding above the newly reset 65K floor is the key trigger for such a move to materialize. Let that level go and we'll probably just float back into another rangebound malaise. But if buyers can sustain their bid and reclaim some lost ground, I've got no issues trailing the momentum for another bullish impulse.
Of course, no forecasting is infallible - that's why we always run a tight ship around here. Cautious position sizing, and prudent use of invalidation points and stop losses. Already taking some paper profits and raising my ripcord line as we creep higher. Not going to get greedy on this move until I see more confirmation.
But as of now? I'm betting we climb higher before any meaningful pullback develops. 70K is the next major pivot zone on my radar, following this baby blue path forward. From there, reassess as always. Could be a nice run ahead if the energy sustains. Let's Do This!
