Behavior and pricing of Cryptocurrencies: qualitative analysis in the light of traditional economics

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There is always a dispute over whether a cryptocurrency is itself a currency. Many argue that the term "currency" should not be applied but cryptoactive. Recently, some countries, in the same way that, in the 80s of the 20th century, countries "dollarized" their economies, these "bitfied" their reserves.The historical economic issue is that countries, back in the 20th century, which simply adopted the dollar as their national currency - as opposed to indexing the national currency by the dollar - had many exchange problems, as the domestic economy was not similar to the United States, and any The mishap of the US economy (which was absorbed by the size of its domestic economy) was transformed into an economic disaster in the country that had adopted the dollar.Another experience, the indexation of the local currency to the dollar, although less impactful, also caused a lot of damage. If artificial indexation was used, without fluctuation, the direct reflex was the devaluation of products and the total imbalance of the country's trade balance. If exchange rate fluctuated, it suffered speculative attack, capital flight and overvaluation of the internal currency, harming exports.Anyway, the indexation of one currency for another, applied directly in the economy of any country, causes some kind of catastrophe. Simply because in order to have indexation, there is a clear need for economies to be, at least, similar. not in size, but in commercial productive characteristics and trade balance balance.Binary pairs of major and minor currencies are the form found by trade, to mainly mirror the trade balance between countries holding the currency of each related nation.In this way, equalized trade, taking into account goods and products, GDP, unemployment and inflation rates, among many other variables, determines the price ratio of binaries.In this way, the financial market is also able to define capital gains, market reactions of companies, private and state equity funds, investment funds and commodities. From this arise direct and future financial transactions.In fact, futures arise from the grain and food market - agro-economic commodities - which depend on the weather, the harvest and others. As they are food, the future market guarantees the certainty of the continuity of production, receipt, in short, the relationship between supply and demand.However, what many call weakness can be called the strength of cryptocurrencies: they do not depend on factors other than their mathematical ecosystem.Evidence suggests that cryptoactive prices are related to internal factors, in particular mining, while external ones are related to simple market aspects of supply and demand.From the Roman goddess Juno, there is a descent: Juno Moneta, who would be the protector of financial resources. Soon, all coins of Ancient Rome were blessed, minted, in its temple.Thus, the stem "moneta" came to mean "mint" in Latin, and its monetary and currency forms permeate all Latin-influenced languages.Money, from a contemporary point of view, can range from the role in which a financial value order controlled by the central bank (or equivalent) of a constituted government passes through to the simple relationship that regulates commercial agreements for the purchase and sale of goods and services.Oeda, as a monetary institution, commercial regulatory representative of a country, public, acts to encourage or restrict certain actions, playing a fundamental role in reducing uncertainties, protecting the common citizen and ensuring a stable environment for investments and business.In this way, the very concept of currency, in the economic protective aspect of a country, becomes the main obstacle to the replacement of current systems by 'cryptocurrencies' issued decentrally: the deficit of confidence that such instruments, the historical speculative attacks on the economies of publicly traded countries and uncontrolled illicit activities make the crypto-system unstable.A reliable monetary system is one capable of ensuring price stability and minimizing the occurrence of crises.Cryptoactives (especially bitcoin) should therefore not be classified as currencies, as they do not meet the minimum requirements for being called “coins”.As financial assets, it would imply that most users invest their money, as a way to speculate in the short term or invest in the long term.Thus, the concept is closer to that of a financial asset, priced in dollars, highly volatile and with strong appreciation. There are also secondary binaries, but always in triangular comparison with dollar.Thus, the greatest strength of cryptocurrencies becomes their weakness: the unrestricted freedom of this system, which is generally private, transnational and without effective control in physical territories, makes it impossible for it to be adopted as currency without first heavy regulation and without there being, also a significant increase in the degree of reliability in the transactions.Many confuse reliability of the cryptocurrency financial system with the mathematical reliability of transactions. These are different things: transaction reliability - guaranteed by mathematical modeling and cryptographic algorithms, they only guarantee the delivery of the value, with delivery receipt. For those who don't know, this must be done because the internet is a non-deterministic network, that is, you shoot a data packet from a source computer and, God willing, this packet must arrive at the destination. There is, in essence, nothing to guarantee delivery and not even a return to origin.That's why the bitcoin system is revolutionary: it makes a deterministic network, resistant to attacks, with delivery receipt and guarantee of value, over a non-deterministic network. In this sense, blockchain technology and effort mining ensure the reliability of value transit.But it is not this criterion that we talk about at the level of currencies, it is the reliability that speculators cannot manipulate prices and values, demands and offers, that pyramid schemes cannot be made and that the system itself is auditable: it has an owner, it has an origin, it has a path, it has a destination and it has a receiver. The blockchain guarantees the path, but does not guarantee the other requirements.For inspection, there must be regulation, for there to be regulation, it is necessary to understand the legal consequences, legality presupposes physical and real precepts, punishments and capital arrest, in addition to compensation for the victim.This path, at this moment, is not clear, nor is it possible, as the value transfer path is one-way, that is, anonymity does not allow for return or reimbursement. Nor does it allow tracking, as it has an encrypted feature.Therefore, cryptoactive, it guarantees equal status to stocks, agribusiness futures, mineral commodity futures, among others.As long as malicious people continue to use the cryptocurrency system for personal gain, blatant deceptions, giant speculations and lack of transparency from brokerage firms, cryptocurrencies will continue to fight the nations.The shift from thinking to easy profit in cryptocurrencies, to speculation at any cost, will change this issue. It will take more or less time as unbridled human greed is gaining more or less in this system.What do we want???

Regulation and Society adoption

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