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Since I have received some not too nice comments about writing about the crisis between Ukraine and Russia from people who might be Russian bots for all I know I made this headline a little spicier. I am not against people disagreeing with me in fact I personally believe people having differing opinions is key for true unity. That being said rewriting history and repeating propaganda from either side doesn't do any good for anyone. Furthermore trying to deflect the issue here by bringing up something that is completely unrelated is not conducive to proper discourse. Now that we have this out of the way let's dive into what has gone on since the last update.
Ukraine News
As predicted the Ukrainian government and major banks have been dealing with massive cyber attacks today. Since Russia is known for cyberattacks this should not catch anyone off guard that they would again launch massive attacks which is something they did just a few days ago. Ukraine has also declared a 30-day state of emergency and has recalled all of the troop reserves bolstering the Ukrainian army to about 250,000 people. For a ton of my news on the ground, I watch xenasolo on TikTok, Twitter, or Youtube as she is actually one of the people Putin claims to be wanting to protect. She has previously stated she is a Russian speaker though she speaks several languages and Russian speakers are who Putin claims are "in danger" and need "protection". She gives a lot of insight into how the Ukrainian people are dealing with this crisis and honestly the sheer size of the country.
Russian Response and Movements
In a move that appears to show that diplomacy is dead, the Russians have begun to evacuate all of their embassy people in Ukraine. Something that is rather interesting is that the videos of the emptying and closing of the embassy seemed to be chaotic with piles of paper being lit on fire to destroy any intel that could help Ukraine or the West when they fully leave the embassy. It is almost as if it has caught the individuals stationed here off-guard with how much of a mess it looks to be. The evacuation also took more time than I would have thought as it took over a day since its announcement which is another reason why I feel it was not expected.
According to news out of Turkey Putin is "disappointed" in the US and NATOs response to Russian troop movements. I am not sure how why he would have expected or even thought of any other reaction. The US and Europe have been pretty vocal about a further escalation in the area and then Russia went ahead and further escalated it. Russia has said that it is preparing "finely tuned and painful" responses to US sanctions as every politician was hit with sanctions and these also hit their families as well. Putin's close circle which has been targeted in prior sanctions is facing a new issue and that is their kids are being sanctioned now as well.
Satellite images have shown that not only armored vehicles are now setting upright on the other side of the border but that field hospitals have been moved to the border as well. While the hospitals remain in Russia they are now right across the border as opposed to stationed at permanent bases in Russia. Latvia's Prime Minister has stated that some Russian troops, as well as armored vehicles like tanks, have moved into the two separatist-controlled regions something the US later confirmed and stated that they expect additional Russian forces to enter the area. The Pentagon has announced that almost 100% of all forces they anticipated Putin sending have arrived along the borders and of those that have arrived 80% are already in a forward position meaning they are ready to push across the border and invade.
The leader of one of the separatist groups Denis Pushilin has called for Ukraine to pull out of the entire Donbas region as it is the "best option". Currently, 2/3 of the Donbas is in Ukrainian hands as opposed to the separatists so it's a silly thing to really even suggest.
Western Powers
The US has hinted at export control sanctions being leveed against Russia as part of future sanctions which would decimate the country. While China plays a huge part in technology the US and UK provide key chips and other electric components that Russia does not produce domestically. If cut off from these the country would be okay for a little bit before they begin to run out and need more only to see that there are no more chips that he needs. Further sanctions have become to light from the EU and UK as well as the US announcing more details on specific individuals targeted.
Something I did not think of but the country has already come out and stated is Switzerland known for its lax financial regulatory sector has come out and said it will make sure that EU sanctions are enforced and will not be used to get around them. This is a huge win even if it is just a face value win because of the reputation that Switzerland has when it comes to moving money around the globe. The EU has also announced sanctions against Russias Defense Minister and Russia's Internet Research Agency. Since Congress is out of session this week in the US a larger package of sanctions is expected once they come back Monday. For a while, the White House has pushed back against strict sanctions especially with Nord Stream 2 however it is now expected that the White House will no longer stand in the way and will sign off on whatever is passed.
Final Thoughts
This conflict has rapidly turned and it has turned in a way that I never would have imagined. With a Democratic government in charge of the US I wrongly assumed that they would end up negotiating away and not stick to their guns as they have. Since Putin's speech two days ago it has become clear he has much larger goals then just Ukraine and that is very concerning.
While I still am holding out some hope that this will not result in war my confidence shrinks steadily with the developments. As I have learned prepare for the worst but hope for the best. It will be concerning to see how Russia handles these sanctions in the upcoming days. While they could pivot to crypto mining to help sustain themselves there is an issue with crypto retreating as much as it has. I doubt if it becomes public knowledge Russia is doing this that the crypto markets will rebound unless the are Proof of Stake coins. It could be though that with a possible cut off from cutting edge chips that crypto is saved if Russia moves to mine it and the US applies export controls. This would allow the would to continue to upgrade and update their miners while Russian ones would quickly fall behind. Again this is all hypothetical and hopefully can be avoided at all costs but it does not appear that Putin wants it that way and the West is not going to back down. They have stated their line and well it was just international law that Russia itself agreed to so their violation of it undercuts what they stand for as is.
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