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After posting about this in back-to-back days to kind of hash out what is going on in Ukraine I had to take a quick break due to traveling for a wedding. While I monitored the situation it seemed to be going the way I figured it would go... A bunch of ceasefire violations and a ton of back and forth with the Kremlin. That all changed at the flip of a switch something I also figured would occur but hoped would not.
Quick Recap
The rumor went around that China asked Russia to hold off until the Olympics were over and whether this was done because of corporation between the two countries or not isn't known. Russia though did hold off before Putin recognized the two regions in Dombask as independent countries. Looking at this from a historical perspective this mirrors what happened earlier in Georgia when they had two breakaway regions bordering Russia who Russia recognized and sent in troops to "protect" this then rapidly lead to the Georgian invasion not long after before Putin pulled his army back. This was after Georgia expressed interest in joining NATO something Russia hates.
Putin has made it known that the fall of the Soviet Union was a shame and that he wants to restore the power that Russia once had. He claims that these areas are Russian places and that Ukraine is really Russian overall. This whitewashes the situation for a variety of reasons but one of the biggest is what Stalin did to this country and the other buffer states. Ukraine faced a huge famine brought about by Stalin leading to the death of millions of Ukrainians and when this happened he literally shipped in Russians to take their place. This is the reason that Russia has a huge presence in these countries so when looking at it from why there are these people it is not because it was traditional territory rather a dictator killed millions and replaced them with his people. Putin does not want people to think of this though and rather would just like us to focus on these people being oppressed.
It is important to look at where Russia has already done this "saving" as well as he has done in Crimea. The Crimean Tartars, who are the ethnic people of Crimea, once again are being oppressed by Russia. This also occurred under the USSR and led to these people fleeing to Western countries. Once the USSR fell they returned home and under the Ukrainian government did not suffer from oppression. However, that has all changed and a clampdown on everything but Russian occurring has led to them fleeing into Ukraine for now. If Putin follows the plan he has laid out this could lead to
West/Ukraine Going Forward
When looking at the variety of options that face the West and Ukraine that they could use to punish Russia a huge action has taken place. Nord Stream 2 is a pipeline that would bypass Ukraine to provide gas to Germany, one of the largest European consumers of Russian gas, and allow Russia to have an oversized impact on Europe. Germany has now paused the project and has threatened to completely get rid of it. This means that while natural gas and oil prices continue to rise Russia does not have Europe to depend on for supplies. With the US, Canada, and Middle Eastern countries getting together to help break the hold Russia has on Europe Russia loses out on a huge customer.
Other ideas range from removing Russia from the SWIFT payment system to sanctioning their aviation industry which they heavily rely on as well. These sanctions and denial of Russia to use given airspace would disrupt the world supply chain more than it currently is but given that the West is investing in domestic supply chains it could be something that they just go for. A lot of this will depend on how the next 24-48 hours pay off. If Russia does not get involved with the skirmishes along the front lines it could prevent further sanctions. If they try to expand beyond the current borders, terrorism starts to plague Ukraine, or they participate in the shelling of Ukraine the gloves will be off in response. Odds are Russia is currently waiting to see how the West responds before they decide if they push their luck or not.
Russia/Separatists Going Forward
I have to admit Russia has a ton to lose and not a lot to gain from this push. Russia has done a very good job of portraying this as saving Russians and the population appears to be buying it. War is something that has been used historically to dodge issues at home which is something that Russia and Putin have really struggled with. It was only last year that some of the biggest protests began to emerge across the country in sizes that have not been seen under Putin's leadership. Between COVID and the attempted assassination of Alexei Navalny who returned to Russia to only be jailed. While the world has focused on Ukraine and Russia the Russian government has taken advantage of this to try and extend Navalny's jail sentence. Typically, this would result in international outcry however it is being done while the world is distracted.
The Separatists are also in a very tough spot. Rumors have leaked out before Russia decided to enter the regions that able-bodied men were resisting the call to arms and women, children, and the elderly were resisting going to Russia. Even with this area having a significant Russian minority they still are/were ethnically majority Ukrainian. Attempts to move the border further run into the issue of not having Russians over there and thus facing resistance even if they take the areas. Many experts have stated that while Russia could steamroll Ukraine they do not have the troops to be able to hold such a large region. Like what we saw with NATO and the US in Afghanistan it is easier to take over a country it is a whole new issue to hold onto it. The leaders of these regions might be happy now but they face significant issues, particularly with finding investments from anyone except for Russia. Odds are China would be willing to help but Russia and China are both trying to be superpowers so Russia has to balance allowing for investment to pour in.
An earlier report from CNBC stated that only 100 pieces of heavy military equipment had been moved into these regions and might be all that they move. Having a limited footprint could help lower the number of sanctions but also upset the Separatists who are risking it all and not getting the same back from Russia. This will be a huge development to follow as the Russian Duma granted Putin powers to engage outside of Russia's borders militarily.
Final Thoughts
Russia has demanded that the West stop sending arms to Ukraine. There is no way anyone can say that this is a sign of heading to the negotiating table. In less than an hour, President Biden is expected to talk to the US public about what is going to occur. Will the hammer come down? Will he keep the sanctions limited? Will he call Congress back even though the Representatives are currently back in their districts? It will be interesting to see.
If sanctions follow how Russia responds will be vital. The biggest thing I will be paying attention to is cryptocurrency recognition by Russia. If Russia is heavily sanctioned I could see Russia quickly speed up the adoption of pro-crypto laws to encourage further Bitcoin mining. Blockchain and Crypto are thought of as being a way that Russia could try to get around sanctions and that could lead to further sanctions and other issues with crypto in the US and other Western Nations. All of this would also hurt Ukraine as it will stop investment and immigration to the country for their pro-crypto ways.
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