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MiG Fighter Jets
Yesterday evening news broke that shocked the United States Government and really threw them for a loop. Poland which has 29 MiG fighter jets that mirror the ones that the Ukrainian Air Force uses announced that they would give away for free the jets to Ukraine. The issue with this was that they unilaterally announced it and said that rather than directly give them they would instead turn them over to the US in Germany where the Ukrainians could pick them up.
This caused a bit of a diplomatic scramble as the US had no idea that this was coming and because of the announcement had to come up with something to respond with. The US could easily replace Poland's MiGs with "used" F-16 fighter jets giving Poland replacement jets so that is not the issue. The issue lies in that Russia would be able to claim that the US was entering the war by being the middleman in this. Not only that but Germany would also be drug in so instead of a bilateral trade the trade would involve 4 parties which Russia could use to argue that the West and NATO had entered the war. Right now the West is doing all it can do to stay out of the war. While they are arming and providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine they have not deployed their own forces or assets that they expect back. To push Russia to the negotiation table they have placed incredibly harsh sanctions on them but so far Russia continues with some absolutely crazy demands.
While Ukraine has requested that the West provide Ukraine with a no-fly zone that idea has been immediately shot down since it would put the US, NATO, and other allies directly in the fire of Russia. The tides though are changing that what is being done currently with the javelin missiles and stinger missiles among others are not enough as Russia continues to attack residential areas and fleeing civilians. Last week a group of foreign policy experts wrote an open letter to President Biden calling on him to create a no-fly zone over the corridors that Russia and Ukraine agree to so that the shelling and bombing of these areas by Russia stops and civilians can get out. So far though the stance has not changed and the West continues to state that a no-fly zone will not be created.
Enter the newest idea that former US and European generals are advocating for which might just be the sweet spot between a no-fly zone and allowing Russia to continue to do what it is doing. This idea calls for the Ukrainian government to be given advanced air defense systems. By giving the Ukrainians these systems the West does not itself create a no-fly zone as this equipment would be operated by Ukrainians. It would also give Ukrainians the chance to defend themselves from not only aircraft attacks but also missile attacks. These systems would operate at mid-and high-altitude and would replace some of the systems that Ukraine had but lost during the opening of the war when the missiles came raining down nonstop.
Some of the Western countries that are now providing arms have very similar Soviet Era and Russian made systems that Ukraine is familiar with and so the US could deploy THAAD and Patriot Missile batteries to these countries who give Ukraine their older systems. This would be just about the best middle ground that could be created. If the US gave Ukraine THAAD or Patriot systems it would be a sharp escalation and while they would be very very successful against Russian forces these systems are expensive and Ukraine has not operated anything like them before. The older systems would provide the air coverage needed to also allow the west to continue to ship additional arms across the border into Ukraine.
Civilian Corridors
In the last few days, Russia has announced that it will have ceasefires in certain cities to allow civilians to evacuate. Then during that time they just start bombing and shelling the very areas they set up. It has honestly turned into really creating kill zones for civilians forcing the Ukrainians to stop people from exiting as they are targets of the Russian Troops. Today one of the corridors blocked is being blocked by Russian troops themselves who are not allowing passage of 50 busses full of civilians. Again these were already agreed to at the highest level of government however it appears the troops on the ground either do not know or were given orders to still not let them pass.
Other cities who have had intense destruction of critical infrastructure have resorted to creating some pretty sketchy "bridges," I say it like that because it is really not a bridge, for civilians to flee on foot over. From the reports, the efforts to get people out via these corridors and to places in western Ukraine or under Ukrainian control have resulted in very few successful evacs. Russia has been trying to push that routes be opened up into Russia or Belarus however there is significant pushback not just from the Ukrainian government but also the civilians themselves who are outraged at Russia and would refuse to go to those places if offered.
After posting this it popped up that the local city counsels in Northern Kyiv have abandoned the corridors as there was no progress in allowing those already in buses to pass. These included children from orphanages that had been bombed out and so they are returning. The risk of large grounds gathered in areas of heavy fighting became too much. Officials did not want to risk groups of civilians being hit by artillery or other fire so for today the plan has been abandoned.
Last night news broke that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had lost contact with the monitors of the Chernobyl power plant. Well, now we know why as the Russian shelling and continued attacks in the area have now damaged a high voltage powerline that provided the power to the plant. For those of you who did not know up until 2000 Chernobyl was still an active power plant despite reactor 4 melting down. Since shutting down the reactors power has had to be provided from an outside source for the cooling pools for the rods, the monitoring equipment for the workers, and a ventilation system that keeps workers safe.
Well like the Russians attacked TV towers and other electrical facilities in major cities they managed to take out the power line to the Chernobyl plant. Ukraine has pressed the UN and the world to get Russia to stop the attacks in the area so that the line can be repaired as the backup generators for the facility only have enough fuel for 48 hours. After that Ukraine is very concerned about possible radiation leaks not only to the outside world but also the ventilation system for the facility will shut down and this will cause workers to face increased radiation exposure. The UN has said that they think the reactors will be fine but like I have stated before I really do not want to risk it. I see this as something that is stupid to even remotely risk since the monitoring system isn't accessible or functioning. The IAEA is relying on models and other sources to try and gauge what can/could happen instead of just demanding the power be allowed to be fixed.
I do not think any of us ever thought we would have to worry about Chernobyl falling into the hands of the people who screwed up with it so bad in the first place however here we are. Do I trust them with it? No, not at all. Just like I wouldn't trust a convicted serial killer with an automatic weapon and unlimited ammunition. It is just asking for an issue that we should not even have to think about.
Final Thoughts
Ukrainian officials have now come out and said that crypto donations have been one of the best forms of aid they have gotten as it has allowed them to get what they need. From this, I assume he means the purchase of body armor and night vision along with humanitarian supplies (food, medical equipment, medicine, etc.). Since Ukraine is the one fighting the war they are the ones who would know best what they need and the officials have said that crypto has played a huge role in helping not only the fighters but the civilians.
