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Sending the first humans to Mars has not only been the dream of countless generations but also reached back to the early modern era. It’s also been the subject of mission planning since the Space Age and is an integral part of the current vision for the future of space exploration.
For the past 20 years, the public has heard statements to the effect that NASA will send the first crew to Mars by the early 2030s. First, the Moon, then on to Mars! That was the plan, and for a while, it looked like NASA was sticking to it.
In recent years, other players have joined the “race for Mars,” including the China National Space Agency (CNSA) and Elon Musk’s commercial space giant SpaceX.
Like NASA, China plans to build infrastructure on the Moon that will help it launch the first “taikonauts” to Mars by as early as 2033, according to several sources.
SpaceX’s plans are even more ambitious, with missions planned for the late 2020s and creating a self-sustaining city before the end of the decade. Unfortunately, many dissenting voices have said that reaching Mars by 2033 (or sooner) is unrealistic.
There have also been numerous delays along the way that have hinted at how the whole “Moon to Mars” mission architecture could fall short of its timelines.
According to statements issued last summer by Associate Administrator Jim Reuter, 2040 may be the more likely year for a crewed mission to the Martian surface. While delays are common with spaceflight, a seven-year delay is striking and raises questions.
For instance: Why is it taking us this long? And what will it take to send the first humans to Mars?
Answering those questions requires a tour down memory lane. With proposals for crewed missions going back a few decades, many contributing factors exist.
The journey begins
Efforts to realize missions to Mars began in earnest with the release of NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) in 2004.
This vision was drafted in response to the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, the state of human spaceflight at NASA, and the desire to reignite public interest in space exploration.
Specific objectives included the completion of the International Space Station (ISS), the retirement of the Space Shuttle by 2010, and the creation of a new class of heavy launch vehicles that would enable crewed missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
The plan included “a series of robotic missions to the Moon to prepare for and support future human exploration activities” starting in 2008 and the “first extended human expedition to the lunar surface as early as 2015 but no later than the year 2020.”
The plan also advocated leveraging lunar exploration, science, and resources to develop the necessary technologies and systems to “support sustained human space exploration to Mars and other destinations.”
In the meantime, NASA would resume sending robotic missions to Mars to search for evidence of life and prepare for the eventual arrival of crewed missions.
This would lead to NASA’s Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) program – consisting of the Spirit and Opportunity rovers – and the Curiosity and Perseverance rovers.
This was followed by the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, which officially launched the Constellation Program.
The program called for the creation of a new class of launch vehicles, including a Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and a Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV), which led to the designs for the Ares I (aka “the Stick”) and Ares V rockets.
Other vehicles included the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) – also known as the Altair lunar lander.
NASA planned to use the Ares I and V in tandem to send astronauts to the Moon and Mars.
Crews would be sent using the Ares I, a two-stage rocket capable of delivering 56,000 lbs (25,400 kg) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
Cargo would be sent separately aboard the Ares V, a two-stage heavy launch vehicle with multiple configurations (depending on the mission profile) capable of sending 414,000 lbs (88,000 kg) to LEO.
This program bore fruit in 2009 when NASA completed the Launch Abort System (LAS) and the first stage of the Ares I rocket. The latter was successfully flight-tested on October 28 of that year.
Unfortunately, due to the Global Financial Crisis (aka. the “Great Recession”) that began in 2007-2008, the Constellation Program was canceled in 2010.
While not directly linked as a replacement of the Constellation Program, roughly a year later, the Obama administration signed off on the “Journey to Mars” mission.
The details and objectives of this program were outlined in the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 and the US National Space Policy issued that same year. NASA’s priorities were summarized in the latter as follows:
“Our next step is deep space, where NASA will send a robotic mission to capture and redirect an asteroid to orbit the moon. Astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft will explore the asteroid in the 2020s, returning to Earth with samples.
This experience in human spaceflight beyond low-Earth orbit will help NASA test new systems and capabilities, such as Solar Electric Propulsion, which we’ll need to send cargo as part of human missions to Mars.
Beginning in FY 2018, NASA’s powerful Space Launch System rocket will enable these “proving ground” missions to test new capabilities. Human missions to Mars will rely on Orion and an evolved version of SLS that will be the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown.”
In many respects, the “Journey to Mars” picked up where the Constellation Program left off.
While the Ares I rocket and Altair lunar lander were discarded, the Ares V launch vehicle and the CEV were retained and became the basis for the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft.
The timelines were also updated, with missions to Mars planned for the early 2030s.
The proposed journey would involve Three Phases and 32 SLS launches between 2018 and the 2030s. These missions would send all the necessary components to cis-lunar space and then onto near-Mars space before making crewed landings on the surface.
Phase One (the “Earth Reliant Phase”) called for more long-term studies aboard the ISS until 2024 and testing the SLS and Orion spacecraft.
This was to include the Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) in 2018, the first flight of the SLS and the second uncrewed test flight of the Orion spacecraft.
Like the Constellation Program, NASA also planned to conduct an Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) in the 2020s, where a robotic spacecraft would rendezvous with a Near-Earth Asteroid and tow it into lunar orbit.
Exploration Mission 2 (EM-2) would follow, consisting of a crewed flyby around the Moon and the ARM asteroid between 2021 and 2023.
At this point, NASA would be moving into Phase Two (“Proving Ground”), shifting the focus from Earth to cis-lunar space. Multiple SLS launches would deliver the crucial mission components to the lunar surface and orbit during this phase.
As of 2012, these elements included the Lunar Gateway (aka. the Deep Space Habitat), an orbiting space station consisting of a Power and Propulsion Element (PPE), the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure, and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) module, the International Habitation Module (I-Hab), and a reusable lunar lander.
Other elements included the Artemis Base Camp – consisting of a lunar foundation surface habitat, a habitable mobility platform, a Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) – and the Deep Space Transport (DST, aka. Mars Transfer Habitat).
Like the Gateway, the DST relied on Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP), a technology NASA originally hoped to test with the ARM mission.
This spacecraft would be integrated with the Orion or an inflatable volume to transport crews of up to four to Mars and other deep-space destinations.
By the early 2030s, Phase Three (“Earth Independent”) would begin, consisting of the necessary elements being delivered to Mars by the DST – like the Mars Base Camp – followed by crewed missions.
This second space station would be equipped with a reusable Mars Lander that would allow crews (once they docked with the station) to descend to the surface, conduct science operations, and then return to orbit.
The plan takes shape
By 2017, NASA’s long-term vision for sending astronauts back to the Moon and Mars was starting to come together. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017, NASA’s priorities for its “Moon to Mars” program were spelled out.
These included the continued development of the SLS, Orion, the Lunar Gateway, and other crucial mission elements.
The bill also directed NASA to cancel the Asteroid Redirect Mission in favor of something more cost-effective.
Other priorities included extending the US’ commitment to the ISS and restoring domestic launch capability (lost with the retirement of the Space Shuttle) through the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) and Commercial Crew Program (CCP).
According to their timetable, the Lunar Gateway would be finished by 2028, just in time for NASA’s long-awaited return to the Moon.
This mission would take place instead of the ARM mission and would see astronauts land on the lunar surface for the first time since the Apollo Era. These missions would also facilitate the creating of a permanent base around the lunar south pole (the South Pole-Aitken Basin).
The first crewed missions to Mars would launch from the Lunar Gateway in 2033, coinciding with a Mars Opposition (when Earth and Mars are closest).
They would spend six to nine months in transit and rendezvous with the Mars Base Camp, then use the Mars Lander to descend to the surface.
The crews would spend up to a year conducting science operations, then launch on their return trip to Earth once Mars was at Conjunction (its farthest point from Earth).
The ship and crew would then spend another six to nine months in transit, return to the Lunar Gateway, and return with the Orion capsule to Earth. Subsequent missions would launch every 26 months. These missions would lead to the creation of a long-term habitat on Mars that would allow for many return visits. It would also enable the first Mars sample return, similar to how the Apollo astronauts brought Moon rocks back for analysis.
By 2019, however, NASA was forced to reevaluate its priorities and long-term goals as the Trump administration (under VP Mike Pence and NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine) inaugurated a new program.
As you can see, NASA’s long-term vision for making the first crewed missions to Mars has evolved since its inception 20 years ago.
Even at its earliest stages, there were doubts that the timelines and commitments were realistic. But the most pressing issues were yet to come. Stay tuned for Part II!
